The Behavioralist Goes Door-To-Door: Understanding Household Technological Diffusion Using a Theory-Driven Natural Field Experiment — by Matilde Giaccherini, David H. Herberich, David Jimenez-Gomez, John A. List, Giovanni Ponti, Michael K. Price

This paper uses a field experiment to estimate behavioral parameters from a structural model of residential adoption of technology. As our model includes both economic and psychological factors, we are able to identify the role of prices, social norms, social pressure, and curiosity on the adoption decision. We find that prices and social norms influence … Read moreThe Behavioralist Goes Door-To-Door: Understanding Household Technological Diffusion Using a Theory-Driven Natural Field Experiment — by Matilde Giaccherini, David H. Herberich, David Jimenez-Gomez, John A. List, Giovanni Ponti, Michael K. Price

Reducing Frictions in College Admissions: Evidence from the Common Application — by Brian G. Knight, Nathan M. Schiff

College admissions in the U.S. is decentralized, with students applying separately to each school. This creates frictions in the college admissions process and, if substantial, might ultimately limit student choice. In this paper, we study the introduction of the Common Application (CA) platform, under which students submit a single application to all member schools, potentially … Read moreReducing Frictions in College Admissions: Evidence from the Common Application — by Brian G. Knight, Nathan M. Schiff

Inspecting the Mechanism of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area — by Ralph S. J. Koijen, Francois Koulischer, Benoit Nguyen, Motohiro Yogo

Using new data on security-level portfolio holdings by investor type and across countries in the euro area, we study portfolio rebalancing during the European Central Bank’s (ECB) purchase programme that started in March 2015. To quantify changes in risk concentration, we estimate the evolution of the distribution of duration, government, and corporate credit risk exposures … Read moreInspecting the Mechanism of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area — by Ralph S. J. Koijen, Francois Koulischer, Benoit Nguyen, Motohiro Yogo

The Role of Behavioral Frictions in Health Insurance Marketplace Enrollment and Risk: Evidence from a Field Experiment — by Richard Domurat, Isaac Menashe, Wesley Yin

We experimentally varied information mailed to 87,000 households in California’s health insurance marketplace to study the role of frictions in insurance take-up. Reminders about the enrollment deadline raised enrollment by 1.3 pp (16 percent), in this typically low take-up population. Heterogeneous effects of personalized subsidy information indicate systematic misperceptions about program benefits. Consistent with an … Read moreThe Role of Behavioral Frictions in Health Insurance Marketplace Enrollment and Risk: Evidence from a Field Experiment — by Richard Domurat, Isaac Menashe, Wesley Yin

What is the Optimal Immigration Policy? Migration, Jobs and Welfare — by Joao Guerreiro, Sergio Rebelo, Pedro Teles

We study the immigration policy that maximizes the welfare of the native population in an economy where the government designs an optimal redistributive welfare system and supplies public goods. We show that when immigrants can be excluded from the welfare system, free immigration is optimal. It is also optimal to use the tax system to … Read moreWhat is the Optimal Immigration Policy? Migration, Jobs and Welfare — by Joao Guerreiro, Sergio Rebelo, Pedro Teles

Deadlock on the Board — by Jason Roderick Donaldson, Nadya Malenko, Giorgia Piacentino

We develop a dynamic model of board decision-making. We show that a board could retain a policy all directors agree is worse than an available alternative. Thus, directors may retain a CEO they agree is bad—a deadlocked board leads to an entrenched CEO. We explore how to compose boards and appoint directors to mitigate deadlock. … Read moreDeadlock on the Board — by Jason Roderick Donaldson, Nadya Malenko, Giorgia Piacentino

Who Becomes a Member of Congress? Evidence From De-Anonymized Census Data — by Daniel M. Thompson, James J. Feigenbaum, Andrew B. Hall, Jesse Yoder

We link future members of Congress to the de-anonymized 1940 census to offer a uniquely detailed analysis of how economically unrepresentative American politicians were in the 20th century, and why. Future members under the age of 18 in 1940 grew up in households with parents who earned more than twice as much as the population … Read moreWho Becomes a Member of Congress? Evidence From De-Anonymized Census Data — by Daniel M. Thompson, James J. Feigenbaum, Andrew B. Hall, Jesse Yoder

The Impact of the ACA on Insurance Coverage Disparities After Four Years — by Charles J. Courtemanche, Ishtiaque Fazlul, James Marton, Benjamin D. Ukert, Aaron Yelowitz, Daniela Zapata

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the major components of the ACA (Medicaid expansion, subsidized Marketplace plans, and insurance market reforms) on disparities in insurance coverage after four years. We use data from the 2011–2017 waves of the American Community Survey (ACS), with the sample restricted to nonelderly adults. Our … Read moreThe Impact of the ACA on Insurance Coverage Disparities After Four Years — by Charles J. Courtemanche, Ishtiaque Fazlul, James Marton, Benjamin D. Ukert, Aaron Yelowitz, Daniela Zapata

Nudging at Scale: Experimental Evidence from FAFSA Completion Campaigns — by Kelli A. Bird, Benjamin L. Castleman, Jeffrey T. Denning, Joshua Goodman, Cait Lamberton, Kelly Ochs Rosinger

Do nudge interventions that have generated positive impacts at a local level maintain efficacy when scaled state or nationwide? What specific mechanisms explain the positive impacts of promising smaller-scale nudges? We investigate, through two randomized controlled trials, the impact of a national and state-level campaign to encourage students to apply for financial aid for college. … Read moreNudging at Scale: Experimental Evidence from FAFSA Completion Campaigns — by Kelli A. Bird, Benjamin L. Castleman, Jeffrey T. Denning, Joshua Goodman, Cait Lamberton, Kelly Ochs Rosinger

How Well Do Doctors Know Their Patients? Evidence from a Mandatory Access Prescription Drug Monitoring Program — by Thomas C. Buchmueller, Colleen M. Carey, Giacomo Meille

Many opioid control policies target the prescribing behavior of health care providers. In this paper, we study the first comprehensive state-level policy requiring providers to access patients’ opioid history before making prescribing decisions. We compare prescribers in Kentucky, which implemented this policy in 2012, to those in a control state, Indiana. Our main difference-in-differences analysis … Read moreHow Well Do Doctors Know Their Patients? Evidence from a Mandatory Access Prescription Drug Monitoring Program — by Thomas C. Buchmueller, Colleen M. Carey, Giacomo Meille

An Experiment in Candidate Selection — by Katherine Casey, Abou Bakarr Kamara, Niccoló Meriggi

Are ordinary citizens or political party leaders better positioned to select candidates? While the direct vote primary system in the United States lets citizens choose, it is exceptional, as the vast majority of democracies rely instead on party officials to appoint or nominate candidates. Theoretically, the consequences of these distinct design choices on the selectivity … Read moreAn Experiment in Candidate Selection — by Katherine Casey, Abou Bakarr Kamara, Niccoló Meriggi

Tax Administration vs. Tax Rates: Evidence from Corporate Taxation in Indonesia — by M. Chatib Basri, Mayara Felix, Rema Hanna, Benjamin A. Olken

Developing countries collect a far lower share of GDP in taxes than richer countries. This paper asks whether changes in tax administration and tax rates can nevertheless raise substantial additional revenue – and if so, which approach is most effective. We study corporate taxation in Indonesia, where the government implemented two reforms that differentially affected … Read moreTax Administration vs. Tax Rates: Evidence from Corporate Taxation in Indonesia — by M. Chatib Basri, Mayara Felix, Rema Hanna, Benjamin A. Olken

How are Preferences For Commitment Revealed? — by Mariana Carrera, Heather Royer, Mark Stehr, Justin Sydnor, Dmitry Taubinsky

A large literature treats take-up of commitment contracts, in the form of choice-set restrictions or penalties, as a smoking gun for (awareness of) self-control problems. This paper provides new techniques for examining the validity of this assumption, as well as a new approach for detecting (awareness of) self-control problems. Theoretically, we show that with some … Read moreHow are Preferences For Commitment Revealed? — by Mariana Carrera, Heather Royer, Mark Stehr, Justin Sydnor, Dmitry Taubinsky

Deposit Market Power, Funding Stability and Long-Term Credit — by Lei Li, Elena Loutskina, Philip E. Strahan

This paper shows that banks raising deposits in more concentrated markets have more funding stability, which enhances banks’ ability to extend longer-maturity loans. We show that banks raising deposits in concentrated markets exhibit less pro-cyclical financing costs and profits, which in turn reduces the funding risk of originating long-term illiquid loans. Consistently, banks with deposit … Read moreDeposit Market Power, Funding Stability and Long-Term Credit — by Lei Li, Elena Loutskina, Philip E. Strahan

Creating Moves to Opportunity: Experimental Evidence on Barriers to Neighborhood Choice — by Peter Bergman, Raj Chetty, Stefanie DeLuca, Nathaniel Hendren, Lawrence F. Katz, Christopher Palmer

Low-income families in the United States tend to live in neighborhoods that offer limited opportunities for upward income mobility. One potential explanation for this pattern is that families prefer such neighborhoods for other reasons, such as affordability or proximity to family and jobs. An alternative explanation is that they do not move to high-opportunity areas … Read moreCreating Moves to Opportunity: Experimental Evidence on Barriers to Neighborhood Choice — by Peter Bergman, Raj Chetty, Stefanie DeLuca, Nathaniel Hendren, Lawrence F. Katz, Christopher Palmer

Predicting Consumer Default: A Deep Learning Approach — by Stefania Albanesi, Domonkos F. Vamossy

We develop a model to predict consumer default based on deep learning. We show that the model consistently outperforms standard credit scoring models, even though it uses the same data. Our model is interpretable and is able to provide a score to a larger class of borrowers relative to standard credit scoring models while accurately … Read morePredicting Consumer Default: A Deep Learning Approach — by Stefania Albanesi, Domonkos F. Vamossy

Towards an Unstable Hook: The Evolution of Stock Market Integration Since 1913 — by Cécile Bastidon, Michael Bordo, Antoine Parent, Marc Weidenmier

We examine equity market integration for 17 countries from 1913-2018. We use network analysis to measure the evolution of global stock market integration as well as stock market integration between and across countries. The empirical results suggest that long-run stock market integration looks like an unstable hook. Equity market integration first peaked in 1913 during … Read moreTowards an Unstable Hook: The Evolution of Stock Market Integration Since 1913 — by Cécile Bastidon, Michael Bordo, Antoine Parent, Marc Weidenmier

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis — by Matthew E. Kahn, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan N.C. Ng, M. Hashem Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi, Jui-Chung Yang

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labour productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita … Read moreLong-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis — by Matthew E. Kahn, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan N.C. Ng, M. Hashem Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi, Jui-Chung Yang

Who is Tested for Heart Attack and Who Should Be: Predicting Patient Risk and Physician Error — by Sendhil Mullainathan, Ziad Obermeyer

In deciding whether to test for heart attack (acute coronary syndromes), physicians implicitly judge risk. To assess these decisions, we produce explicit risk predictions by applying machine learning to Medicare claims data. Comparing these on a patient-by-patient basis to physician decisions reveals more about low-value care than the usual approach of measuring average testing results. … Read moreWho is Tested for Heart Attack and Who Should Be: Predicting Patient Risk and Physician Error — by Sendhil Mullainathan, Ziad Obermeyer

Adoption of CSR and Sustainability Reporting Standards: Economic Analysis and Review — by Hans B. Christensen, Luzi Hail, Christian Leuz

This study provides an economic analysis of the determinants and consequences of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainability reporting. To frame our analysis, we consider a widespread mandatory adoption of CSR reporting standards in the United States. The study focuses on the economic effects of standards for disclosure and reporting, not on the effects of … Read moreAdoption of CSR and Sustainability Reporting Standards: Economic Analysis and Review — by Hans B. Christensen, Luzi Hail, Christian Leuz

Does Condominium Development Lead to Gentrification? — by Leah Platt Boustan, Robert A. Margo, Matthew M. Miller, James M. Reeves, Justin P. Steil

The condominium structure, which facilitates ownership of units in multi-family buildings, was only introduced to the US during the 1960s. We ask whether the subsequent development of condominiums encouraged high-income households to move to central cities. Although we document a strong positive correlation between condominium density and resident income, this association is entirely driven by … Read moreDoes Condominium Development Lead to Gentrification? — by Leah Platt Boustan, Robert A. Margo, Matthew M. Miller, James M. Reeves, Justin P. Steil

Output and Attribute-Based Carbon Regulation Under Uncertainty — by Ryan Kellogg

Output-based carbon regulations—such as fuel economy standards and the rate-based standards in the Clean Power Plan—create well-known incentives to inefficiently increase output. Similar distortions are created by attribute-based regulations. This paper demonstrates that, despite these distortions, output and attribute-based standards can always yield greater expected welfare than “flat” emission standards given uncertainty in demand for … Read moreOutput and Attribute-Based Carbon Regulation Under Uncertainty — by Ryan Kellogg

Screening and Selection: The Case of Mammograms — by Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Tamar Oostrom, Abigail J. Ostriker, Heidi L. Williams

Debates over whether and when to recommend screening for a potential disease focus on the causal impact of screening for a typical individual covered by the recommendation, who may differ from the typical individual who responds to the recommendation. We explore this distinction in the context of recommendations that breast cancer screening start at age … Read moreScreening and Selection: The Case of Mammograms — by Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Tamar Oostrom, Abigail J. Ostriker, Heidi L. Williams

The Effects of Foreign Multinationals on Workers and Firms in the United States — by Bradley Setzler, Felix Tintelnot

Governments go to great lengths to attract foreign multinational enterprises because these enterprises are thought to raise the wages paid to their employees (direct effects) and to improve outcomes at incumbent local firms (indirect effects). We construct the first U.S. employer-employee dataset with foreign ownership information from tax records to measure these direct and indirect … Read moreThe Effects of Foreign Multinationals on Workers and Firms in the United States — by Bradley Setzler, Felix Tintelnot

Spatial Misallocation: Evaluating Place-Based Policies Using a Natural Experiment in China — by Binkai Chen, Ming Lu, Christopher Timmins, Kuanhu Xiang

Using the mass closure of development zones in 2004 as a natural experiment, we examine the causal effect of development zones on firm level TFP in China. The difference-in-difference estimator shows that on average, loss of development zone policies results in 6.5% loss of firms’ TFP. Locational heterogeneity is important. Within 500 kilometers from the … Read moreSpatial Misallocation: Evaluating Place-Based Policies Using a Natural Experiment in China — by Binkai Chen, Ming Lu, Christopher Timmins, Kuanhu Xiang

The Value of Intermediation in the Stock Market — by Marco Di Maggio, Mark L. Egan, Francesco Franzoni

Brokers continue to play a critical role in intermediating institutional stock market transactions. More than half of all institutional investor order flow is still executed by high-touch (non-electronic) brokers. Despite the continued importance of brokers, we have limited information on what drives investors’ choices among them. We develop and estimate an empirical model of broker … Read moreThe Value of Intermediation in the Stock Market — by Marco Di Maggio, Mark L. Egan, Francesco Franzoni

Can Pigou at the Polls Stop Us Melting the Poles? — by Soren T. Anderson, Ioana Marinescu, Boris Shor

Surveys show majority U.S. support for a carbon tax. Yet none has been adopted. Why? We study two failed carbon tax initiatives in Washington State in 2016 and 2018. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we show that Washington’s real-world campaigns reduced support by 20 percentage points. Resistance to higher energy prices explains opposition to these policies … Read moreCan Pigou at the Polls Stop Us Melting the Poles? — by Soren T. Anderson, Ioana Marinescu, Boris Shor

Medicaid Coverage across the Income Distribution under the Affordable Care Act — by Charles J. Courtemanche, James Marton, Aaron Yelowitz

This paper examines trends in Medicaid enrollment across the income distribution after the ACA’s Medicaid expansion. Using data from the American Community Survey between 2012 and 2017, we compare Medicaid coverage over time in 9 states that expanded Medicaid in 2014 with no previous expansion for able-bodied, working-age adults with 12 states that had not … Read moreMedicaid Coverage across the Income Distribution under the Affordable Care Act — by Charles J. Courtemanche, James Marton, Aaron Yelowitz

A Unified Welfare Analysis of Government Policies — by Nathaniel Hendren, Benjamin D. Sprung-Keyser

We conduct a comparative welfare analysis of 133 historical policy changes over the past half-century in the United States, focusing on policies in social insurance, education and job training, taxes and cash transfers, and in-kind transfers. For each policy, we use existing causal estimates to calculate both the benefit that each policy provides its recipients … Read moreA Unified Welfare Analysis of Government Policies — by Nathaniel Hendren, Benjamin D. Sprung-Keyser

The End of the American Dream? Inequality and Segregation in US Cities — by Alessandra Fogli, Veronica Guerrieri

Since the ’80s the US has experienced not only a steady increase in income inequality, but also a contemporaneous increase in residential segregation by income. Using US Census data, we first document a positive correlation between inequality and segregation at the MSA level between 1980 and 2010. We then develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations … Read moreThe End of the American Dream? Inequality and Segregation in US Cities — by Alessandra Fogli, Veronica Guerrieri

Income Growth and the Distributional Effects of Urban Spatial Sorting — by Victor Couture, Cecile Gaubert, Jessie Handbury, Erik Hurst

We explore the impact of rising incomes at the top of the distribution on spatial sorting patterns within large U.S. cities. We develop and quantify a spatial model of a city with heterogeneous agents and nonhomothetic preferences for locations with different amenities of endogenous quality. As the rich get richer, their increased demand for luxury … Read moreIncome Growth and the Distributional Effects of Urban Spatial Sorting — by Victor Couture, Cecile Gaubert, Jessie Handbury, Erik Hurst

Sharing a Government — by Jaume Ventura

This paper develops a simple theoretical framework to study a set of regions, each with its own regional government, who share a union or central government. These governments must decide whether to implement or discard a large number of projects that produce local benefits for the region that implements them, and externalities for the rest … Read moreSharing a Government — by Jaume Ventura

Effects of Direct Care Provision to the Uninsured: Evidence from Federal Breast and Cervical Cancer Programs — by Marianne Bitler, Christopher Carpenter

Much research has studied the health effects of expanding insurance coverage to low-income people, but there is less work on the direct provision of care to the uninsured. We study the two largest federal programs aimed at reducing breast and cervical cancer among uninsured women in the US: one that paid for cancer screenings with … Read moreEffects of Direct Care Provision to the Uninsured: Evidence from Federal Breast and Cervical Cancer Programs — by Marianne Bitler, Christopher Carpenter

Does Eviction Cause Poverty? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Cook County, IL — by John Eric Humphries, Nicholas S. Mader, Daniel I. Tannenbaum, Winnie L. van Dijk

Each year, more than two million U.S. households have an eviction case filed against them. Many cities have recently implemented policies aimed at reducing the number of evictions, motivated by research showing strong associations between being evicted and subsequent adverse economic outcomes. Yet it is difficult to determine to what extent those associations represent causal … Read moreDoes Eviction Cause Poverty? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Cook County, IL — by John Eric Humphries, Nicholas S. Mader, Daniel I. Tannenbaum, Winnie L. van Dijk

Risk-Free Interest Rates — by Jules H. van Binsbergen, William F. Diamond, Marco Grotteria

We estimate risk-free interest rates unaffected by convenience yields on safe assets. We infer them from risky asset prices without relying on any specific model of risk. We obtain a term structure of convenience yields with maturities up to 2.5 years at a minutely frequency. The convenience yield on treasuries equals about 40 basis points, … Read moreRisk-Free Interest Rates — by Jules H. van Binsbergen, William F. Diamond, Marco Grotteria

Choice and Consequence: Assessing Mismatch at Chicago Exam Schools — by Joshua D. Angrist, Parag A. Pathak, Román Andrés Zárate

The educational mismatch hypothesis asserts that students are hurt by affirmative action policies that place them in selective schools for which they wouldn’t otherwise qualify. We evaluate mismatch in Chicago’s selective public exam schools, which admit students using neighborhood-based diversity criteria as well as test scores. Regression discontinuity estimates for applicants favored by affirmative action … Read moreChoice and Consequence: Assessing Mismatch at Chicago Exam Schools — by Joshua D. Angrist, Parag A. Pathak, Román Andrés Zárate

Labor Shares in Some Advanced Economies — by Gilbert Cette, Lorraine Koehl, Thomas Philippon

We study the joint impact of three measurement issues in the empirical literature on the labor share: (i) start and end periods for the empirical analysis; (ii) accounting for self-employment; and (iii) accounting for residential real estate income. When we correct for these three potential biases, we do not find a general decline in the … Read moreLabor Shares in Some Advanced Economies — by Gilbert Cette, Lorraine Koehl, Thomas Philippon

Mortality and Socioeconomic Consequences of Prescription Opioids: Evidence from State Policies — by Robert Kaestner, Engy Ziedan

This article presents estimates of the effects of state prescription opioid policies on prescription opioid sales, mortality and socioeconomic outcomes of adults. Our analysis highlights that most prescription opioid use is medically prescribed and that curtailing such use may have adverse effects on wellbeing. We also emphasize that there are significant differences in prescription opioid … Read moreMortality and Socioeconomic Consequences of Prescription Opioids: Evidence from State Policies — by Robert Kaestner, Engy Ziedan

The Rise of Niche Consumption — by Brent Neiman, Joseph S. Vavra

We show that over the last 15 years, the typical household has increasingly concentrated its spending on a few preferred products. However, this is not driven by “superstar” products capturing larger market shares. Instead, households increasingly focus spending on different products from each other. As a result, aggregate spending concentration has in fact decreased over … Read moreThe Rise of Niche Consumption — by Brent Neiman, Joseph S. Vavra

College Remediation Goes Back to High School: Evidence from a Statewide Program in Tennessee — by Thomas J. Kane, Angela Boatman, Whitney Kozakowski, Christopher Bennett, Rachel Hitch, Dana Weisenfeld

Many U.S. students arrive on college campus lacking the skills expected for college-level work. As state leaders seek to increase postsecondary enrollment and completion, public colleges have sought to lessen the delays created by remedial course requirements. Tennessee has taken a novel approach by allowing students to complete their remediation requirements in high school. Using … Read moreCollege Remediation Goes Back to High School: Evidence from a Statewide Program in Tennessee — by Thomas J. Kane, Angela Boatman, Whitney Kozakowski, Christopher Bennett, Rachel Hitch, Dana Weisenfeld