Flash Update No. 7

(SGS Subscription required) • Weakening and Negatively Benchmarked Annual Payroll Growth Signaled Deepening Recession • As Has Become Commonplace, Monthly Payroll Gains Continued to Disappoint Expectations, Despite Regular Relative Monthly Boosts from Downwardly Revised Prior-Month Activity • August Headline Unemployment of 3.7% Held Just a Notch Above Its Historic Low, Yet Broader Unemployment Measures Jumped … Read moreFlash Update No. 7

Flash Update No. 5

(SGS Subscription required) • Payroll Employment Hit by 501,000 (-501,000) Downside Preliminary Benchmark Revision for Year-Ended March 2019 • Final 2019 Benchmarking Estimate Should Be Even Worse; Publication Due With January 2020 Payrolls • Previously Estimated Jobs Gain for Full Year Ended March 2019 Was Reduced by 20% (-20%) from 2.496 Million to 1.995 Million … Read moreFlash Update No. 5

Flash Update No. 1

(SGS Subscription required) • Nothing Like a Little Legerdemain to Boost the GDP Revisions and to Generate Happy Reporting • Headline Real GDP Growth Rates Were Spiked by Downside Revisions to Inflation • Nonetheless, Real GDP Growth Revised Sharply Lower, Slowing Rapidly Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year into First-Quarter 2019 • Second-Quarter 2019 Quarterly Growth Slowed to … Read moreFlash Update No. 1

Bullet Edition No. 13

(SGS Subscription required) • Booming Stocks Versus Booming Gold? Unfolding Conditions Strongly Favor Precious Metals, Not Equities • Consumer Liquidity Stresses Intensify; Economic Outlook Continues to Deteriorate Markedly • Sharp Jumps in Annual July Money Supply Growth Suggest Possible Easing, Yet the Monetary Base Remains in Historically Deep Annual Contraction • Whether or Not Hints … Read moreBullet Edition No. 13

Bullet Edition No. 11

(SGS Subscription required) • REVISED GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; APRIL DURABLE GOODS • Major New Recession Continues to Unfold, With a Deepening, Broad Economic Contraction Evident in Key Economic Series, Along With Mounting Concerns on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve • Look for Renewed FOMC Easing by September 2019 • Real Annualized First-Quarter Gross … Read moreBullet Edition No. 11

Bullet Edition No. 10

(SGS Subscription required) • Economic Downturn Continued into Second-Quarter 2019; Faltering April Freight Volume Presaged Declines in Production and Retail Sales • April Manufacturing Turned Negative Year-to-Year for First Time Since 2015, When Freight Volume Also Turned Negative, Signaling the Onset of an Unofficial Double-Dip Recession in Production and Manufacturing • Production and Manufacturing Suffered … Read moreBullet Edition No. 10

Bullet Edition No. 9

(SGS Subscription required) • INFLATION, PENDING ECONOMIC HEADLINES, MARKET TURMOIL • Inflation Increase Reflected Gasoline Prices, Not a Booming Economy • Real Average Hourly Earnings Declined for the Second Straight Month • Weaker Than Expected Economic Reporting Looms • Downside Revisions to First-Quarter GDP Should Follow • Market Sentiment Should Begin Shifting Back Towards a … Read moreBullet Edition No. 9

Bullet Edition No. 7

(SGS Subscription required) • INITIAL FIRST-QUARTER 2019 GDP ESTIMATE WAS NOT CREDIBLE • Downturn Has Just Begun; Recession Remains in Play, With FOMC-Generated Financial Stresses Still Diminishing Consumer Activity • Consumer Controls 72% of GDP, but Generated Only 22% of GDP Growth • Advance First-Quarter Real GDP Gain of 3.17% Topped Consensus Forecasts, Strengthened Against … Read moreBullet Edition No. 7

No. 983b: Updated ALERT, Economic and Financial Market Review

(SGS Subscription required) • UPDATED ALERT: As U.S. Economic Activity Turns Increasingly Negative, So Too Will the Stock Market and the U.S. Dollar • February Real Median Household Income and March Real Hourly Earnings Declined; Excessive FOMC Rate Hikes and Tightening Have Pummeled Consumer Liquidity • Sharply Deteriorating Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Manufacturing and Freight … Read moreNo. 983b: Updated ALERT, Economic and Financial Market Review

Bullet Edition No. 6

(SGS Subscription required) • PENDING DOWNTURN IN ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS • New Recession Should Be Timed from November/Fourth-Quarter 2018 Peak; Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Faces Still Further Downside Revision; First- and Second-Quarter 2019 Real GDP Quarterly Contractions Loom • Current, Positive Economic Expectations Should Drop Sharply, Following Heavily Negative Economic Releases, April 16th to 25th, Leading Into … Read moreBullet Edition No. 6

Bullet Edition No. 5

(SGS Subscription required) • Reporting-Quality Issues Mount With Shutdown Catch-Up Data • Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Growth Slowed Sharply, With Further Downside Adjustments Pending in July 26th Benchmarking • Industrial Production Benchmark Revision Patterns Suggested Still-Slower Fourth-Quarter and Near-Contraction First-Quarter Activity • Contracting First- and Second-Quarter 2019 GDP Activity Likely Follows • Housing Sector Remains In … Read moreBullet Edition No. 5

Bullet Edition No. 3

(SGS Subscription required) • Consumption/Manufacturing Downturn Driven by Consumer Liquidity Woes • Weakening Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization Were Consistent With a Pending Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP and Signaled High Odds of a First-Quarter 2019 GDP Contraction • These Data Reinforced Similar Negative Revisions Seen With Earlier Indicators, Including: Retail Sales, Housing, … Read moreBullet Edition No. 3

Bullet Edition No. 2

(SGS Subscription required) • Latest Retail Sales, Employment and Monetary Base Show Increasingly Negative Economic Trends • January 2019 Retail Sales Signaled a Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP, Along With an Early Indication for a First-Quarter 2019 GDP Contraction • Annual Growth in February 2019 Payrolls Slowed in a Manner Consistent With a Faltering … Read moreBullet Edition No. 2

No. 983a: Updated ALERT, Advance Economic and Financial-Market 2018-2019 Review and Preview

(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Economy and Markets Are Transitioning, and It Is Not Good News • Excessive FOMC Rate Hikes and Tightening of the Last Year Have Pushed the Economy to the Brink of a New Recession, Exacerbated by the Shutdown • Headline Back-to-Back First- and Second-Quarter 2019 GDP Contractions Likely Follow Still-Pending Reporting … Read moreNo. 983a: Updated ALERT, Advance Economic and Financial-Market 2018-2019 Review and Preview

No. 982: Stock Market, December 2018 Employment and Unemployment, Monetary Conditions

• One Cannot Fool Main Street, U.S.A., With Media Hype; Average Person Has a Stable, Solid Opinion as to How He or She Is Doing • Federal Reserve Has Not Eased Its Tightening Policies, and the Economy Continues to Turn to the Downside, Sinking Anew • Benchmarked Headline December 2018 U.3 Unemployment Jumped by 0.2%, … Read moreNo. 982: Stock Market, December 2018 Employment and Unemployment, Monetary Conditions